Xi’s strategic miscalculation spawns dangerous Himalayan military standoff

Yet another round of India-China military talks to defuse the almost 21-month-old border standoffs between rival forces has ended without any progress. This should come as no surprise: Stalling tactics, deception, information warfare, and drawing out negotiations are integral to China’s negotiating strategy, so as to test the limits of the opponent’s position and help consolidate its own leverage.

Amid the brewing confrontation with India, China has stepped up its frenzied construction of warfighting infrastructure in the Himalayan borderlands. The speed and scale of its construction activity to build new permanent facilities extending from heliports to electronic warfare stations might suggest that it is preparing to launch a war at a time of its choosing.

China’s primary objective, however, is to win without fighting. This is in keeping with ancient military strategist Sun Zhu’s advice, “The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy.”

From building a bridge over Lake Pangong to constructing militarised villages and roads inside internationally recognized Bhutanese territory near India’s so-called chicken-neck, China is opening new pressure points against India. To pressure India to back down, it is also employing psychological operations, media manipulation, and the specter of war.

India, however, refuses to buckle under Chinese pressure. Since it discovered China’s territorial encroachments on Ladakh’s borderlands, India has more than matched Chinese military deployments. The Indian armed forces currently are at the highest level of operational readiness, according to Army chief General Manoj M Naravane.

To be sure, India remains locked in a very defensive posture vis-à-vis China. Militarily and diplomatically, China has created a situation in which it retains the initiative. While fending off Beijing’s political machinations, India has to be alert to the possibility that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could spring a new military surprise.

Meanwhile, the Chinese bridge over Pangong, by strengthening China’s offensive capability in the area, casts an unflattering light on India’s decision of less than a year ago to vacate the strategic Kailash Heights. The withdrawal from the Kailash Heights, which overlooks the PLA’s Moldo garrison, was a Chinese New Year gift from India.

India also accepted Chinese-designed ‘buffer zones” in three separate Ladakh areas where PLA forces had intruded. The buffer zones have largely been established in territories that were under India’s patrolling jurisdiction.


Source Credit: Brahma Chellaney

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